Climatic Agnosticism.

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Since I’ve never touched upon before, I’d like to briefly share my views on what many consider to be the greatest issue of our era: ‘global warming’- interchangeably known as ‘climate change’.

Despite being interested in the subject (as we all should be), I’ve been deterred from getting into this debate for several reasons, but first among them is the irrational fury, cult-like dedication and inflexibility of the warring parties.

In a sense, Global Warming is for the Political Left what demography and Islamisation is for the Right – a potential so dire and of such far-reaching disruption that it relegates all other issues to irrelevance.

After all, what are human trifles compared against the end of the world? What is there to gain by politics if our children cannot live to enjoy the results? And so on…

The position I would (perhaps wrongly) imagine most of my audience to occupy would be that of climate scepticism. This is a blog that offers opinions on other matters in tune with the conservative worldview, and conservatives have a very emphatic line on global warming – it isn’t happening; the only reason the climate movement exists is to resurrect in green clothes policies that failed wearing red.

The Left-Liberal position meanwhile is a mirroring confidence to outright denial. To them, the climate argument is not only persuasive, it is conclusive and should be taken as fact.

Neither view is consistent enough, friendly enough, softly-spoken enough to escape the suspicion of ulterior motives. And true to this, a substantial majority of activists (for and against) have political or economic interests to advance.

Anti-global warming theorists are usually sponsored by the oil industry. Pro-Global warming activists are usually employed by pressures groups, money-hungry ‘charities’ or in receipt of lucrative government research grants.

The closer you get to the climate change debate, the more the stench of money overwhelms you.

My own view? I don’t think political movements as big as this can be based purely on fabricated evidence. There must be something going on, and it mustn’t be to our common advantage.

That said, those who maintain we are on the brink of apocalyptic climate change, a change in the weather system so drastic that we will no longer be able to go about our lives, is not backed up with any substantial evidence at all.

It is important to remember that climatology, for all its certainty, is a science in its tender infancy. It should not be considered to possess the same predictive power as physics or biology. It is still developing and this means that it may be wholly wrong in its current outlook.

We must continue to test the predictions of the global warming theorists. If their predictions come about, action must follow. If not, then difficult questions must be answered by those profiting by making them.

D, LDN.

When Dubai Sells Dates.

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Abu Dhabi, Currency, Curse of Oil, Dates, Dates selling, Dubai, Global Warming, Gold, Muslims, Oil barrel, Oil price 2014, Oil price collapse, Oil Price Projections, Property Market, Saudi Russia, Sex and the City 2, Skyscrapers, UAE, USA

Oil is a finite resource. It is also unevenly distributed, destructive to the environment and a wildly distortionary factor in the game of global influence. With these things conceded, it becomes easy to understand the impetus behind the search for a renewable replacement.

And while that search is now commonly regarded as a failure – Wind energy, solar power and nuclear technologies have all proven inefficient and if relied upon would ruin the global economy and collapse the Western standard of life – oil is quickly becoming less of a luxury than its producers (and pricers) are accustomed to.

The technology of shale gas extraction – though as environmentally destructive as any other form of fuel – will soon make America, Canada and much of Europe energy independent, free at last from those dubious and self-destructive alliances with the states of the Arabian Gulf.

What will happen to the producing nations when their precious resource no longer sets the pace of the global economy?

The answer will heavily depend on the country considered. Some oil-producing nations never needed to become as dependent on oil as they currently are. Russia for example, could have a modern diversified economy by now were it not for the meddling authoritarianism of the Putin Regime. Venezuela could be enjoying the same relaxed, tourist-driven tranquillity as Barbados or Dominica.

On the other hand, there are nations that have done far better with oil than they should have (or could have) without it. Among these, none risk a sharper and more dramatic fall than those states of the Gulf.

Dubai – that glistening Ballardian nightmare on the Indian Ocean – is the place to watch during this period. Dubai is the Manhattan of the United States of OPEC. And when oil goes down, so do those skyscrapers.

After all, other than tourism, oil and investment, what can Dubai offer? The only answer discoverable online is dates. Like Germany and cars, Japan and electronics, the UAE is apparently the go-to source for those annoying fruits often given as gifts but which nobody has ever liked.

As oil becomes plentiful and cheap, companies in the Gulf will desperately try to plough their funds into blue-chip companies in the West. Real estate within cities like Abu Dhabi and Dubai will be promoted as a piece of tropical paradise for wealth Westerners unimpressed with the sunshine in Monaco and Cannes.

The Gulf regimes themselves will begin to use a different tone in its diplomacy. Gone (or very moderated) will be the haughty superiority they have employed in the past, replaced over time with a panicky and tremulous pleading.

What should the world’s relationship with the Gulf in the long term be – that is, after the age of expensive oil?  In my view, it should be measured to match the scant disregard with which they have treated our own geopolitical security in their time of luxury. All the time that oil went for over $100 a barrel, the Saudis felt no anxiety in sponsoring groups dedicated to wiping out their clientele.

When Dubai is reduced to selling Dates, I suggest the West remembers this.

D, LDN.