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In ‘The Myth of the Muslim Tide’, Canadian author Doug Sanders noted that birth rates in some Muslim countries have started to decline and are projected to sink to European levels in the future, later making use of this fact to pour cold water on the arguments of writers like Mark Steyn, Pat Buchanan et al, who propose that Muslims will triumphantly outbreed Europeans both in and outside Europe.
And having researched the examples cited by Sanders, I’ve accepted that in more advanced – that is to say more liberal – Muslim countries, the fertility rate is slowly but noticeably lowering. In Iran for example, the birth rate will go sub-replacement by 2030; in Tunisia, that transition will occur in 2040, and so on…
I fail to be consoled by this for many reasons, but chief among them is the reproductive dynamism of the exceptions to Sanders rule. Syria, Afghanistan, the West Bank and Gaza, Sudan, Yemen and Iraq, all have birth rates that are rising to near sub-Saharan levels.
All of those countries, it won’t have escaped your notice, are also war-torn and have been in a state of chaos for much of the 21st century. Demographers are (or should be) aware of this trend. I’m all but certain that Islamists are.
Chaos is highly fertile. When societies collapse, breeding is accelerated. Unemployment leaves people with little else to achieve beyond the primitive urges of procreation. People procreate out of boredom and in order to achieve some semblance of happiness in a situation otherwise devoid of it. They may also be motivated to serve political ends by boosting the number of their tribal or religious clan.
In the West Bank and Gaza, fertility rates are 5 or 6 children per woman. This is known in Israel as the ‘demographic time-bomb’ – a weapon of Palestinian nationalism that, they fear, will ultimately force a compromise over land.
As a concern, this has relevance for Europe too. In the future dystopia I have warned of, a riot-torn multicultural Europe may provide all the chaos necessary for an acceleration of the Islamist project.
One has to wonder if Islamists are aiming for a state of chaos across the Middle East with demography in mind. Perhaps they oppose civilisation for its effects on their long-term numbers. Bin Laden himself memorably spoke of Indonesia and Pakistan as the great ‘human resource’ for Sunni Islam. Comments like that ought to chill the blood of the shrinking peoples of Europe.
People are just as powerful as missiles if they are wearing explosives. The crude stockpiling of death-ready faith-zombies is a crude yet intelligent strategy, and one that may prove decisive in a future dominated by lawlessness.