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Nervous? I am. In fact, to be perfectly honest, I’m not sure I’ve ever been so on edge before an election in my life. On Wednesday morning, barring some unforeseen chaos, America will have a new president elect. As to whether that president will wear a tie or a pantsuit is still anyone’s guess.
I have stopped paying attention to the polls. The last couple I saw, published only a few hours apart, predicted a Clinton victory and a Trump victory respectively. This tells us nothing except that the contest really is down to the wire.
The New York Times is, as far as I know, the only notable publication daring to predict a landslide for one particular candidate. In today’s online edition, the paper’s resident statisticians give Hillary Clinton an 84% chance of winning the election. For context, the paper notes that (according to this calculation) “Mrs. Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same as the probability that an NFL kicker misses a 38-yard field goal.”
I don’t need to tell you that such brazen overconfidence is terribly unwise at this point.
We have, whatever the media may fill time by saying, no real way of knowing what the final imbalance will be on Wednesday morning. We know only that two radically different Americas will have fought with purpled-faced passion for the right to determine the national (and, in some ways, global) future – their preferred visions as different from each other as can possibly be imagined. Perhaps not since the Civil War has there been such stark and violent disagreement between the peoples of the (ostensibly) United States.
There remains nothing more to say now other than to hazard a final prediction. Before I do, I must first make clear the difference between what I think will happen and what I am personally hoping for. These are, as I will explain, sadly out of sync.
I believe (perhaps I should say – I fear) that Hillary Clinton will edge the contest on Tuesday. My reasoning for this is based not on the polls, but on the strange logic (if it can even be called logic) of the US electoral college. As you’ll be aware, it ultimately doesn’t matter who leads the national polls. America’s presidents are elected by a much more convoluted mechanism. Based on unbiased (non-US) media analysis, the road to a Hillary victory appears at present much clearer than the road to a Trump triumph. In order to pull off an upset, Mr Trump must ‘flip’ numerous states in which the Republican support base is traditionally weaker than the Democrats’ – and do so in spite of a massive blitz of hostile propaganda in those states (Clinton’s attack ad spending in this election has resembled more the budget for a military invasion than for a political campaign).
True, a Trump victory is still possible, and we mustn’t lose hope. I was, you may remember, wrong about the outcome of the Brexit vote (along with pretty much everyone else in Britain). However, there is nothing to gain from wishful thinking, and I prefer to state my opinion truthfully.
Whoever wins on Tuesday, America has been undeniably altered by the long, gruelling contest up to this point. A forgotten and despised community – the White working class – has organised into a coherent and readily deployable political force. This force will outlive Trump’s candidacy and go on to influence many elections to come. This is bad news for both parties, but in particular for the Republican mainstream – a tired-out, uninspiring and treacherous collective more concerned with dollars and cents than with people and destiny. If Trump does indeed lose, therefore, there are still a lot of reasons to be thankful for his having stood at all.
The Democrats, even if they win, will be greatly wounded by Clinton’s effect. Almost singlehandedly, the nominee has peeled off a previously loyal base of youthful idealists, casting them adrift into the political wilderness in search of a third party able to satisfy their lust for European socialism and big government. It would be no surprise to me were these idealists to coalesce with the stray Republicans mentioned previously. Both groups do, after all, have the same complaint in kind. They both understand all too well that the elite no longer gives a damn about their welfare or identity. Never has a genuine third alternative looked more realistic than now.
I will post a celebration or condemnation of the result as soon as possible after it has been announced.
See you on the other side of this madness. Breathe slowly. It’s almost over!
D, LDN
PS: I am very interested to hear if the readers of this blog concur with my prediction. Perhaps I’m being unduly pessimistic?
Defend the Modern World 
I, for one, think you may be unduly pessimistic–unfortunately. We are on the edge of our seats over here in the States, and my family, friends and I are all hoping and praying for a Hillary win. The thought of a President Trump makes me sick to my stomach. That being said, he has done well in tapping into the fears and frustrations of a specific demographic–so he may very well carry off an unexpected victory.
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“The thought of a President Trump makes me sick to my stomach” – Why is that?
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Well, there are so many reasons. And no, it’s not because of the “grab her by the pu**y” comments–that’s just some sexist icing on an already horrible cake. As a person with Eastern European roots, I’m worried about Trump’s nonchalant attitude towards NATO and willingness to buddy up with Russia. There were his scary comments during the primary suggesting a special ID card and database for Muslims. I understand the need to deal with the problem of radical Islamic terrorism, but the idea of singling out a religion this way is very un-American. Equally scary comments about women needing to be punished for abortions. Hillary has her flaws, but Trump is unpredictable and has dictatorial tendencies. Whether or not we disagree about all this, consider me the bearer of good news–I really do think he has a good chance of winning, sadly.
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I’m also concerned about Russia. I’m not a fan of Putin at all. Still, I tend to think that Trump has been misquoted on NATO. He said recently that NATO is a ‘great thing’.
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I guess that’s the comforting or discomforting thing about Trump…he frequently makes contradictory statements, so it’s hard to say what he really plans to do 🙂
And see? My pessimism was justified. Now to see what a Trump America will actually look like…
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Like most people, I’m excited and nervous simultaneously. Trump is certainly going to shake things up.
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Heh, most people I know here are just depressed about it. But then I live in Oregon, a very blue part of the country. Let’s hope for everyone’s sake that Trump shakes things up in a good way.
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I’m American and I think you’re right. I’ve been following FiveThirtyEight, which generally crunches the numbers very carefully and accurately, and they give Clinton a 65% chance versus Trump’s 35% chance. But it’s going to be close, and it’s even possible that we won’t know for sure on Wednesday. If Trump had been more disciplined, he could have beaten Clinton. The problem is, who is there on the American political scene who’s disciplined enough to mount a strong campaign yet hasn’t been entirely co-opted by the machinery of either of the political parties?
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Yes, Trump has been undisciplined. He was especially loose with his words at the beginning of his campaign. That did him a lot of damage. Kellyanne Conway has done a very good job of keeping him on message since then.
“who is there on the American political scene who’s disciplined enough to mount a strong campaign yet hasn’t been entirely co-opted by the machinery of either of the political parties?” – I don’t know of anyone in particular. Trump’s self-funded,ideologically independent campaign may be a one-off.
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I couldn’t be happier to say that I disagree with your prognosis.
Trump will win by a comfortable margin. The media has distorted so many polls that there are many people under the impression that the country is truly divided 50/50, and that is simply not the case, I think, when you investigate beyond what the oligarchic class is presenting.
First, some casual observations. Trump regularly fills stadiums with tens of thousands of attendants, several times a day, and it is consistent across state lines. I am happy to be corrected but I would challenge anyone to find me a video of one of his rallies post-convention that is not in the high thousands at least. His support is rock solid, and voter turnout will likely be one of the highest in republican history. Contrast that with Hillary supporters. She has had to cancel events due to low attendance. When she does do a rally, she can hardly muster a few hundred. The behemoth of a budget she has at her disposal is not working nearly as effectively as she needs. Now while turn out at rallies is by no means an indicator by itself, I think it stands to reason that considering the discrepancy in size, it rationally follows that the candidate with tens of thousands of supporters at a rally, rallies conducted several times a day, contrasted with the candidate who receives a tenth, at best, of support once a day, there is a big difference in hard support at least.
Another casual observation – if you’ve been watching the pundits talk you’ll see that the polls are being walked back toward the possibility of a trump victory. If you understand what polls are, which are tools of a political candidate to drum up support for their base and undermined the support of their opponent, this is a spectacularly bad idea. They are doing this to save their reputation for future elections. If they think CLinton is going to win by 8 points, and then a Trumpslide occurs, whatever modicum of credibility the media has left will be shattered. They’re backtracking to save hides, which to me at least, means they aren’t confident enough in a Clinton victory to make brazen claims about her inevidable coronation.
A final casual observation is the fact that Clinton is campaigning in Michigan. Michigan! It’s one of the bluest states in the union, until Trump. Shes spending what little time is left campaigning in a state believed to be reliably blue for years. Thats a rough indication on how much support the Trump movement has behind it.
Some more thinks to make you feel better –
Stony Brook professor has predicted a Trump victory for months. His method, which the details escape me at the moment but involve something about primary voters, has accurately guessed each election for decades.
http://insider.foxnews.com/2016/10/22/trump-will-win-election-professor-long-track-record-predicts
Bill Still has a great channel where he tracks polls and reports on them. Been accurately predicting things for years. He’s very comfortable with a Trump victory:
https://www.youtube.com/user/bstill3/videos
I’m predicting Trump will win with over 300 electoral votes. I’ve even bet some money on it
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I hope you’re right!
“Trump regularly fills stadiums with tens of thousands of attendants, several times a day, and it is consistent across state lines.” – I tend to think this is more to do with Trump’s celebrity status than his political power. Donald Trump was always a big draw.
What were the odds when you placed a bet?
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Hilary has the “machinery” to get out the vote, and appears to know the in and outs to keep the Democrat and her resources focused on the battle ground states.
Trump is firing on the individual enthusiasm and gung-ho to get every one out to vote, with out no apparent mechanism.
It will be up to the Trump’s supporters to figure it out, then to get their vote with others out.
Whether this will work or not remains to be seen.
I think that is his system, You want me, then you will have to work. Win or die on that principle. Sort of take responsibility for your freedom, business, economics, education and health, with just a light hand of government.
This is how his Presidency will work, if he gets there.
It was a close run thing for even Winston Churchill to come to power, though he had done a lot of preparation for years gaining knowledge of Hitler and his actions. Bringing this knowledge to others that built up as he was proved right. Though this was all with in the inner circles of power, they could see where he had popular support.
Despite some of his “stuff ups” he kept his eye on the war, and the big picture, never to give in, and to make Victory.
Will be interesting depending on the elected, how the last of Obama’s months will play out too.
Then the first 100 days of Presidency.
Just what effect of the others elected for Senate and Congress.
Too close to call, I sense the measured power of the machine, though ruffled, having the formula crossing the t’s and dotting the i’s and then there is the un-measurable depth of gung-ho, enthusiasm, throwing the last dice.
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Indeed. The Democrat ground game is said to be much more efficient than that of the GOP. This was well demonstrated in 2008 and 2012. They put a lot of effort on getting people out of bed and into the voting booth. Could be different this time since Trump is a ‘celebrity candidate’. That may make people who are not usually interested in elections turn out. There are so many variables, it is – as you say – too close to call with any certainty.
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I’m with you all the way. Your blogs are excellent.
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Thank you, Simone. Very nice of you to say.
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Sadly I agree with you, The opinion pollsters nearly all seem to be predicting a win for Hillary. Trump has put up a tremendous fight, but those sordid sex tapes will have alienated quite a few women voters. There are two big imponderables though. How many black men will stay at home? Black women seem very pro-Hillary, but black men not nearly so much. And how many Christian evangelicals will turn out for Trump? I think that Mitt Romney might well have won last time round had not so many evangelical Christians taken the view, quite reasonably from their point of view, that as a Mormon he is a heretic. A big stay-away by black men and a last-minute surge by Christian evangelicals might lead to a Trump victory.
I shall switch on the BBC radio news on Wednesday morning desperately hoping that you and I are wrong in our gloomy prediction of a Hillary victory. If Trump has won then the BBC news may well be preceded by solemn and mournful music.
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Yes, the evangelical vote is a potential swing factor. I remember the 2004 election. Many pundits were confident that John Kerry would win due to the Iraq quagmire, but evangelicals came out in record numbers in defiance of the polls. It’s certainly possible that could happen this time. I just think it’s less likely than a Hillary win.
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There are good reasons for concern over this election, and state of the United States at this time. As a American, I have watched this election with a mixture of concerns. At one level, I care for neither for Clinton or Trump. The remaining party options are not worth a moment of thought when voting. And yet, for me, the choice finally seems right that Trump is the better choice.
As cousin Benjamin Franklin said when asked what the new country would be; ‘A republic if we can keep it.’ And that truly is a core value needing support today. Frankly, Clinton is a part of the modern elites who care nothing for their people and the traditions (and real values) that form the backbone of nations. As in Europe so in the United States. And Americans do have good reason for concern for the American republic. Trump, at least, does speaks for the nation. Clinton speaks for groups, and these groups have little need for nations. We are asked to forget ourselves, and let ourselves to be lost in the collective herd. That is neither American or Western.
Tomorrow, I am voting for Trump. I am concerned for what may happen, and yes, regardless of the outcome of that election the divisions seen with this election shall continue. Nevertheless, it is time to speak for the nation over that of the group. And again – nevertheless the polls, I do believe there are many individuals who have been quiet about their thoughts on Trump. As a gay man, I truly believe that are many gay men and lesbians who have real concerns about allowing yet more Muslims into the nation. We can see how the Islamic nations really are, and we can the fast changes occurring in Europe for gay life. Frankly, gay safety and it is not good. Trump does speak about this. The otherwise has chosen otherwise, and – it is been noticed. That is the core issue facing us all – what kind of nation will we be?
I hope for the best, and steady myself for what will occur.
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The Islam issue is Trump’s strongest area. He’s the only ‘mainstream’ politician in the Western world with the guts to call it how it is. He deserves a vote just on that basis IMO.
I found Trump’s words about the LGBTQ community in his convention speech very sincere and surprising. He’s certainly a very different kind of conservative.
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Agree on all points about Trump’s speaking on the subject of Islam, and his remarks about the LGBT community. It’s not the old guard American conservative that was refreshed with the Christian right of the 1970’s and 1980’s. America has never been able to have any real British Tory tradition – and that is a good thing for us in the States.
The times are changing…
One more thing – it was very ‘interesting’ watching the leftist gay guard in this election. To me, it seems that they are now the reactionary or the actual term regressive left. They have not looked good for this, and we may be seeing a part of the LBGT community breaking away from the old guard. Or have they pushed themselves further left? It depends on you point of view I guess. One thing I know, I have put them behind me. And again, Trump has done something important speaking out to the LGBT population. And last – the Q is for ‘queer’. And that are those who use sex as a base for all kinds of extreme leftist material.
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Not sure why Trump used LGBTQ instead of LGBT at the convention. He’s used it since then, too.
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He probably is not all that informed on these matters. Being gay does help with it, but even I don’t understand all the additional letters some add (or want to add). Frankly – I would had stopped with the B myself. But that is just my thought. However, the Q (for queer) does bear watching. I have never seen it but as a title with very far leftists material…
We are all dealing with the new norm of political thought in this modern world…
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Hi.
I can’t factor in the electoral college effect which I don’t understand well enough, but I think there is a revolution going on in the West and there are many shy Trump voters out there: Anything but the status quo. I think Trump will win, with the caveat of my initial comment.
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I don’t think anyone fully understands the electoral college. It’s very odd.
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Oh – just remember the American founders had a fear of a king becoming a thing again here. They designs all kinds of stops into the system to help keep that from occurring. From time to time, we have calls to end the college. I hope we never do. Much like the calls for a new constitution.
Rather like your unwritten tradition there..
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The fat lady has sung.
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She has indeed. 🙂
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Well I am quietly pleased that Trump has won, and with the Republicans holding both houses.
Well it is like the dog that chases cars, just what is he going to do now that he has caught it,? Already he has running his opening gambits like trade.
I am sure with 2 months to inauguration, he will have got staff sorted and finalized some of his programs that may be able to be put in place.
So to all the new staff, advisers consultants etc. Get it sorted, as many that trust Trump will expect him to do the job of hiring and if necessary to “You are fired”.
To guide the “movement” opening up opportunities, that working people will have to grasp and make the best of.
The only thing I can not figure is the financing and economics, with the USA debt,
Then again, money into infrastructure is better than money into social issues of PC/MC etc.
Well all the Best to Trump, and especially to all Americans
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He laid out a few policies right before the election. If you go to his facebook page, somewhere there is a series of pledges for his first 100 days. We’ll be able to see just how trustworthy and effective he is.
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Apparently there really was an army of secret Trump voters. Or the pollsters just messed up.
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I was also wrong. I was almost sure Hillary would win.
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While I am glad that Trump has raised issues that for the most part other politicians ignore in the name of political correctness, as a Canadian he troubles me with his talk of not adhering to treaty agreements that he believes the U.S could do better on. The point being, if he is unwilling to honour previously signed treaties how can anyone trust his word! Let alone the ones situated on Americas border with all of that nice clean fresh water that I believe the U.S will take no matter whether it is right or just in doing so.
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It’s impossible to say with certainty whether Trump will stay true to his word. We can only give him the benefit of doubt. I would be disappointed if he let down his voters, but not shocked. Let’s give him time.
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All this talk of Craig Bannon being an antisemite or otherwise is just slander and smear tactics from the same media that attempted to claim Trump the same thing, given that some key writers at Breitbart who are jews have come out to defend Bannon. I don’t see this as an issue, in fact this is a good sign that Bannon is onboard he will make sure that Mr Trump won’t backslide on immigration or foreign policy (not that I thought he would Mr Trump seems to have more conviction than most) and prevent neocons from gaining influence.
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I agree that Trump is not an anti-Semite. I’m unsure of Bannon. We’ll have to wait and see.
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