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In ‘The Myth of the Muslim Tide’, Canadian author Doug Sanders noted that birth rates in some Muslim countries have started to decline and are projected to sink to European levels in the future, later making use of this fact to pour cold water on the arguments of writers like Mark Steyn, Pat Buchanan et al, who propose that Muslims will triumphantly outbreed Europeans both in and outside Europe.
And having researched the examples cited by Sanders, I’ve accepted that in more advanced – that is to say more liberal – Muslim countries, the fertility rate is slowly but noticeably lowering. In Iran for example, the birth rate will go sub-replacement by 2030; in Tunisia, that transition will occur in 2040, and so on…
I fail to be consoled by this for many reasons, but chief among them is the reproductive dynamism of the exceptions to Sanders rule. Syria, Afghanistan, the West Bank and Gaza, Sudan, Yemen and Iraq, all have birth rates that are rising to near sub-Saharan levels.
All of those countries, it won’t have escaped your notice, are also war-torn and have been in a state of chaos for much of the 21st century. Demographers are (or should be) aware of this trend. I’m all but certain that Islamists are.
Chaos is highly fertile. When societies collapse, breeding is accelerated. Unemployment leaves people with little else to achieve beyond the primitive urges of procreation. People procreate out of boredom and in order to achieve some semblance of happiness in a situation otherwise devoid of it. They may also be motivated to serve political ends by boosting the number of their tribal or religious clan.
In the West Bank and Gaza, fertility rates are 5 or 6 children per woman. This is known in Israel as the ‘demographic time-bomb’ – a weapon of Palestinian nationalism that, they fear, will ultimately force a compromise over land.
As a concern, this has relevance for Europe too. In the future dystopia I have warned of, a riot-torn multicultural Europe may provide all the chaos necessary for an acceleration of the Islamist project.
One has to wonder if Islamists are aiming for a state of chaos across the Middle East with demography in mind. Perhaps they oppose civilisation for its effects on their long-term numbers. Bin Laden himself memorably spoke of Indonesia and Pakistan as the great ‘human resource’ for Sunni Islam. Comments like that ought to chill the blood of the shrinking peoples of Europe.
People are just as powerful as missiles if they are wearing explosives. The crude stockpiling of death-ready faith-zombies is a crude yet intelligent strategy, and one that may prove decisive in a future dominated by lawlessness.
D, LDN.
Politics are Demography and demography are Politics. The side with the highest number of people wins, that’s as simple as that and yet discussion demography is still a taboo issue in Europe as long as it’s not entirely about allowing more non-Europeans in.
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Demography accurately predicts the future. It doesn’t matter what we say today. It only matters what effect we have on human behaviour.
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However: if once you take modern medicine out of the equation, and add in polio, etc, plus the catastrophic effects of constant inbreeding (also not mitigated by modern medical care) I’m not so sure that the Muslims will get very far. Right now those ‘fertile’ hotspots are still mostly parasitical on external food supply and medicine. The population explosion amongst the local Arab Muslims in the land of Israel *only* happened after the Jews returned in large numbers and instituted better methods of agriculture, cleaner water, and what – even then, in the late 19th and then the 20th centuries – was improved medical care, lowering infant mortality rates. Before that, the Muslim population in that part of the world – despite Islamic polygyny forced marriage child ‘marriage” and force-breeding – was in a state of collapse. They might have been churning out lots of babies but most of those kids were dying in infancy or childhood. Going back in history: under the chaos of the Mamluk dynasty (stretching from Egypt to Lebanon) it’s estimated that the population of that region, at the end of that dynasty, was about a third of what it had been at the beginning. Think about that. *Despite* the Muslim code that promotes force-breeding, at the end of three centuries there were 2/3 fewer people in the region than there had been at the outset. If the Ummah were contained, and denied access to external resources (notably, medicine) I think it would start to collapse: inbreeding + vicious misogyny that kills off many girls before they’re even old enough to breed + continual destructive behaviour that actively destroys food production systems (the Taliban used to deliberately cut down *orchards of fruit trees* and James Parkes describes ceaseless clan warfare among the Muslim villagers in what is now Israel, that resulted in trees cut down, wells poisoned or filled, fields sown with salt…back and forth for generations, people destroying *their own life-support systems* out of sheer spite…. If once the Infidel world gets a clue and turfs them out and cuts them off – sends them to Coventry, so to speak – they can breed as fast as they like but most of their kids will die…or they will kill them themselves.
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For the foreseeable future, the West will export medicines to the rest of the world and will extend the lifespans of all and sundry. Muslims are capable of manufacturing (if not designing) modern medicines. They only need the ‘recipe’ . What may prove a real issue is water resources. Water is growing scarcer and more unequally distributed.
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Well, I hope that your misrepresentation skill will be usefull in your Counterjihad politician career. Good luck!
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Many thanks.
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