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africa demographics, Africanisation of Europe, BBC, Boat Italy, Boats, Britain, Defend the modern world, demographics in africa, EU, Europe, Europe 2050, Europe 2100, European Union, fear of a black planet, Islam, Italy migrants, Lampedusa, PC gone mad, Political Correctness, public enemy, Samuel Huntingdon, Sudan
While contemporary attention is understandably directed toward demographic movements in the Muslim World, another phenomenon, of equally great consequence, is occurring without much being said about it.
This is the demographic explosion of Sub-Saharan Africa.
Even if Muslims manage, as their growth rates suggest they might, to conquer Europe’s cities, their victory will almost certainly be short-lived. In time, and with the certainty of mathematics, the Arab Paris will turn blacker and blacker. The same with the Turkish Berlin, the Pakistani/Bangladeshi London and the Berber Amsterdam. The future population of Africa and much of Europe will be black African.
Let’s look at some numbers.
The average fertility rate for a woman of European (‘white’) ancestry is 1.4 children. In Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia and Libya, the rate is around 2-3 children per female, significantly higher than the European rate, but falling gradually every year.
By frightening contrast, the fertility rate for a woman of Nigerian ancestry is 6-7 children and rising. In Niger, the rate is as high as 8 children. In Somalia, the rate is 6.4 children. In Mali, the rate is 6 children. In Angola = 6: Uganda = 6: The Gambia = 5.8 and so on….
In a United Nations listing of countries arranged by fertility rate, 38 of the top 40 countries are in Sub-Saharan Africa (the other 2 are Yemen and Afghanistan – both exceptional cases created by war).
Samuel Huntingdon remarked upon this in his ‘Clash of Civilisations’, though this part of his narrative has largely been lost beneath the more immediate concerns of terrorism. In a short but vital paragraph, the academic predicted that although initially – in the early 21st century – the chief concern of Europeans would be the threat of Islamisation, this would later give way to a fear of ‘Africanisation’.
The demographic projections would seem to confirm this.
Of the many consequences of Africa’s boom, some will be beneficial to the West, and some potentially destructive. In the former camp, it is fair to say that Black immigration will be a North African issue long before it is a European one. This may interfere with or confuse the Islamist project, given that African Islam is not as organised and ferocious as Arab Islam and also that a sudden shift to multi-racialism can bring about an instability conducive to Western exploitation.
In the latter camp, Europe risks being completely inundated and transformed. The tragedy of the boats last week is just a foretaste. The boats will get bigger, safer, faster, more frequent and more heavily laden.
And Europe will not be able to campaign as openly against Black migration as it does against Pakistani, Arab or Turkish immigration. Hostility to Muslims is broadly accepted by the Middle Classes as common-sense. Black People are far better protected by political correctness and this will make political resistance more complicated.
White people more or less like Black people. I like Black people. The American elite likes Black people. In America, a show of Black public solidarity for Africans in Europe would make it extremely hard for European youth to speak frankly about the issue without being outcast from their generation.
The matter requires nuance and feeling. If the black immigrants are legal (no boats please) and Christian, I suppose this would be one way of replenishing the workforce currently shrinking from Western infertility. And even if they are Muslim, I would speculate that black people are more likely to give up faith if offered material reasons for doing so (compared to Turks, Arabs and Persians, for whom Islam is entwined with ancient pride).
What decides ultimately is proportion. Europe cannot take every boat that washes up on Italian or Maltese shores. Nor should large-scale immigration continue at all without popular referenda. Immigration of some sort is economically necessary, but the native people of Europe must be in charge of its scale and (just as crucially) its content.
D, LDN.
Defend the Modern World 
Back in the nineties I heard Professor Steve Jones, geneticist of renown, on ‘Start the Week’. He asserted that African demographics coupled with large scale emigration from Africa would ultimately lead to a black world. He hastily added that he had no problem with this idea…well, he was talking on the BBC after all, so I guess he had to. Personally I think that a black takeover of the world would mean the end of any form of higher civilisation and the descent of humankind into a state of primitivism.
The immersion of the Arab and Muslim world would be no loss to the cause of human civilisation. Most of Europe will probably succumb without a fight. But I suspect that the Oriental races would put up a robust resistance, unhindered by any notions of political correctness. The fiercest fight of all against black domination wilI I predict come from the Latin Americans. Forewarned by the subjugation of Europe there is no way that the Hispanics would submit to negrification. There are blacks in Latin America but they are kept firmly down. Even in Communist Cuba the white-ish minority keeps a firm grip on power, relegating the blacks to more menial positions. Cuban communists have shown rather more subtlety in this regard than the Afrikaaners ever did. But then subtlety never was a strongpoint of white South Africans.
This was a fascinating post though and further strengthens my belief that Gore Vidal was correct when he predicted that the wars of the future will be race wars.
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“Personally I think that a black takeover of the world would mean the end of any form of higher civilisation and the descent of humankind into a state of primitivism.” – That will ultimately depend on whether the blacks, having achieved numerical dominance, choose to annihilate/subjugate other peoples. That isn’t the case in some black countries. In South Africa, over 75 per cent black, the streets are still paved, mail is still delivered, order more or less holds. A White minority of even 10% would be enough to keep the flame of modern civilisation going.
It’s certainly not something to wish for though.
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This trail of thought seems xenophobic to me. Racially, it is true that African genes are dominant when mixed with white or other (read Asian or Latin) genes, however a change in skin tone is not the same as a change in ideology. The browning of the global population is not the disaster that the Islamification of the world would be. Our ancestors were shorter, sicker, more inbred than we are – our descendants will be stronger & smarter. Consider natural selection, education, connectivity – we are not doomed. Your fear of a black planet makes me wonder if you would not vote for Chuka Umunna because HE IS black, regardless of his skills.
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‘Fear of a black planet’ is the title of an album by Public Enemy. I used it to refer to the fear others have of the prospect. Personally, I don’t dislike Black people, as I say in the post. Nevertheless, the threat of inundation from Africa is very real and deserves comment. Socially, it would prove ruinous. I would support the controlled immigration of Christian African refugees and some skilled economic migrants.
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Ummuna is a British citizen and should be judged as a Brit. He has done nothing to deserve the hype now growing around him.
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And he’s not black. He’s mixed race.
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I will offer some YouTube links here, if I may:
Whether natural selection is good or bad, it currently doesn’t function, given that there is a welfare state which rewards mass reproduction by the least capable and responsible (I have seen this up close on estates in England). Mike Judge’s amusing Idiocracy (though he avoids showing black people – perhaps Hollywood made him do this):
We can add to this an apparent cultural death wish across Europe with regard to mass (Islamic) immigration and worship primitive/mystical aspects of African cultures:
But as you say, all is not lost. Technically we are improving, at least, though this might mean fewer jobs for the less capable (who are having most children). Look at the way Amazon has robotised its warehouses:
With regard to black people, I agree they’re fine as long as they do not self-segregate (as any group tends to do in numbers). Jared Taylor is very hard to refute on some matters, however. I cannot think of any truly great contributions Africans have so far been able to contribute to humanity as a group either in African countries themselves or in European ones (only rap and athletics spring to mind, neither of which I particularly admire). Mr Taylor argues that this cannot currently be said to be due to discrimination, since – on the contrary – companies are falling over themselves, spending millions to be the most PC and attract black people into their ranks:
Of course, this doesn’t mean I “hate” them – I treat people as individuals. But it’s still true that I hardly see any at higher cultural events, and it must be faced that they (like Muslims) are over-represented in criminal behaviour. (And poverty does not necessarily lead to crime – more likely the other way around.)
I think we should not “hate” anyone because of their ethnicity, but neither should we be politically correct – i.e. we must report matters as evidence suggests they are, not as liberals might like them to be.
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Idiocracy will go down as one of the most prophetic films ever made. Have you read Richard Lynn’s book ‘Dysgenics? It’s very frightening stuff.
I don’t hate on the basis of ethnicity either. It’s primitive and ugly. Nevertheless, it’s inevitable that racism will rise as demographics change. All the more reason to get our act together in advance. The best way to avoid racial animosity is to properly regulate immigration.
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As for African achievements, I’d argue more for Jazz, Blues and early Rock and Roll. Rap is something of an aberration, albeit a very consequential one.
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I thought of Jazz and Blues as I wrote that, and I agree they’re probably the best achievements, but arguably not ones that currently affect or advance the world, in the scheme of things.
My point of course is that African culture has not produced the Michelangelos, Einsteins or Shakespeares, to mention only the pinnacles of Western civilisation, or anything remotely close. It’s always embarrassing when you hear of some exhibition at the “British” Museum in London and yet again they are showing African artefacts such as wooden pots. We built space shuttles. Some of the lack of achievement may be due to them enslaving themselves and western people enslaving them, but is it entirely due to that? And when will that ticket run out?
As I mention, one interesting question to ask, is why was it “us” and not them who went around the world and achieved so much in the first place?
We from this cold and windy isolated island. Maybe the elements are a factor – one might only want to relax in Africa! (Arguably many colonised countries have barely moved forward since they were given independence.) On the other hand there might be genetic factors. (Of course the Left disallow even asking this, but an open-minded person would be interested to enquire as to whether it is the case.)
If there are such factors, we then need to ask “Do people *have* to be high achievers to be part of our society?”. Many white people are not. Probably not, if there are jobs for them, but it helps if they do not glorify the base and criminal instead (which brings us back to rap and looting for that matter).
Why are blacks almost never seen at higher cultural events in the UK? Here is our thread on this topic when I last mused on it at the TD forum:
http://forum.theodoredalrymple.org/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=3051
Perhaps because these are not “their” culture. But they are are arguably superior culture, and isn’t it time to advance when the hand is outstretched? Even if it is true that black people have not kept up, however, and their rap has been pernicious in our culture, then we have to ask why so many white people have been so dim as to buy into that culture too and not shown more pride in their own.
Anyway, one fascist aspect of the Left, it seems to me, is that they are keen to call any recognition of difference or inequality “hate” – or of course racism – when really they are just honest attempts to explain what is going on in the world.
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“If there are such factors, we then need to ask “Do people *have* to be high achievers to be part of our society?”. Many white people are not. Probably not, if there are jobs for them, but it helps if they do not glorify the base and criminal instead (which brings us back to rap and looting for that matter).”
I agree. To be honest, I see more social and moral disintegration in poorer White communities than in Black. When I sent a clip of the Jeremy Kyle Show to a foreign friend, he was stunned.
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All the evidence suggests intelligence is heritable. This can only be denied by the Left for so long.
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Let me be clear. I am not a fan of affirmative action, and I know well the works of Public Enemy including Fear of a Black Planet. Many times, I have been tempted to cite my aboriginal ancestry to sharpen my chances of advancement in education, and some employment fields, however since I do not appear aboriginal I do not think it is fair. The reason I have not is because racism is real and ubiquitous, at least in this country – and in many instances there is a clear link between poverty and crime. Daveyp mentioned in his/her comment that even in Communist lands such as Cuba, racism is real: “blacks are kept firmly down”.
Despite your scholarly examples of a clear lack of high-achievements by Africans, and the fact that Hispanics and Blacks in America are not as competent (when viewed through the prism of race) at coding, programming and other tech endeavours as Asians and whites, I am still puzzled by your approach. I personally understand that Islam is not a race despite what left-wingers may say, so mixing these two very different issues is worrisome when trying to appeal to a broad proportion of the population – that is currently democratic and could benefit from referenda on immigration.
In Australia, we had a very real issue in the late 1990’s with right wing politicians fearing our country was being “swamped” by Asians. The reality is though, these groups from Vietnam, and China primarily have assimilated well into our society. The same people are now open in their disdain for Muslim immigrants here, of which I wholeheartedly agree. We must admit though that sectors of the larger community who are against Muslimification (of Europe at least) are also inherently racist, regardless of religious background.
In so far as natural selection, the clip from Idocracy proves your point well. Other than the Singapore model, which rewards high IQ citizens when they have more children, there is not much to be done about this trend though. Even in Singapore it does not really work, they have become Arab-like in their wholesale importation of low skilled workers on temporary work visas in order to keep their living standards artificially high. Again, your clip from Idiocracy proves this well: you can’t make smart people (regardless of their ethnicity) have more children to outbreed the dullards.
Anyway, I am keen to hear you explore this further in future blogs.
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It’s wise for Australia to be concerned about Asian immigration. It is so close to Indonesia and Islamification is a real threat. Australia has been blessed by a lack of Islamic immigration in the past. You’d do well to preserve that situation.
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There is minimal immigration from Indonesia to Australia (compared to from China), at least in the form of Indonesian citizens becoming Australian. The majority that do migrate from Indo to Aus are ethnic Chinese and are Christian, and generally middle-class or above. Same can be said of Malaysians immigrating to Australia.
The ethnic Muslims who emigrate are few and far between, as the Indonesian people become more middle class they see more opportunity in their own country…
Indonesia does serve as an entrepôt to Australia for illegal immigrants however from countries such as Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. This is the challenge for Australia, as Indonesia does not want to settle these asylum seekers, and its likely that they do want to settle there either.
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That’s good. I hope it stays that way.
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After reading your article and following comments, I would like to make a few ‘diverse’ comments.
1. Why is that when the Chinese & Indian population explosions happened in the past few decades, nobody expected them to migrate in huge numbers to other places (The diasporas are tiny in comparison to the whole population) and why is that it’s assumed, casually, that the population explosion in Africa will directly impact on the demographics of Western Europe?
Why is that there are no Chinese or Japanese or Indian or (even geographically closer) Middle-Eastern or North African blogs are wringing their hands in despair about this issue?
(The Chinese, in many ways are delighted because of the potential availability of cheap,local labour for their massive investment projects in raw materials in Africa.)
2. We can never predict what could happen in the future. Already the National Front is the largest party in France, the UKIP is an undeniable presence in the U.K. A few sensible politicians in Europe could very well swing the balance in favour of the native Europeans.
3. My personal observations of the black population in Britain is, they are generally more cultured & integrated than the (South Asian)Muslims, and a few black work colleagues I know of are very competent.
4. Even though race is a reality today , I think that much unites the human races than divides us. In the future, advances in genetic technology will, I hope, make the whole issue redundant.
Though it seems and sounds scary, parents in the future will opt for ‘designer’ babies, if the technology is cheap and safe.
Also, I think that genetic technology would make dramatic changes in appearance feasible. In such a scenario, what ‘race’ would a person be if he could appear a white man this year and a black man in the next year.
Or what if, in the future, synthetic skin becomes common, like we have synthetic hips, knees, eye lenses etc today, and, at the touch of a button we could change our skin color to black or pink or even purple or magenta. How would we define race then?
Though many people criticize Ray Kurzweil as a crank, the fact that 80% of his predictions have come true, should make us sit up and notice.
http://www.kurzweilai.net/reinventing-humanity-the-future-of-human-machine-intelligence
http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html
http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-2.html
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1. The reason Indians and Chinese haven’t migrated en masse to the West is because those countries have functioning economies and are very culturally different to the West. They would rather remain in their own culture than be absorbed into another. Africans have more or less adopted the cultures of their colonial masters (whether Arab or European). Africa is also war-torn and, in parts, dirt-poor. Geography also plays a part. It is easier to cross a river than to travel from India and China to Europe.
As to North Africa, I will concede this much to the Arab states, they are not as racist as European countries. In Egypt, many millions of Black Africans have been allowed to settle, and the country once had a half-black President (Sadat). Islam is a very universalistic faith and faith matters more to Muslims than skin colour.
2. That remains to be decided. The fact is Europe will need immigration in the future to sustain the worker-retiree ratio.
3. I agree.
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I’ve read a lot of Kurzweil and for a while considered myself a Transhumanist. And I still think it’s likely that science will advance at an accelerating pace. As to whether this is good or bad remains to be seen. The idea of Designer babies poses very awkward moral questions.
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Concerning the growing trend for ‘designer babies’ I read an article a couple of weeks ago to the effect that most of the women taking this option are affluent middle-class women and they are tending towards surrogate Scandinavian fathers. The dominant fashion seems to be for tall and blonde children. Sorry that I don’t have any statistics to hand on this though. It occurs to me that what is going on here is a modern day version, albeit unintentional, of the Nazi Lebensborn programme. I wonder if this has dawned on some of the left-wing politicians and feminists who so eagerly espouse these new reproductive technologies. The law of unintended consequences.
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I think that the advent of designer babies is unstoppable, if the technology becomes safe, reliable and reasonably priced.
It will start initially with rooting out genetic diseases. If I have a hemophilia or sickle cell disease gene, I wouldn’t want my child to inherit it. Which parent would, given a choice?
The next step would be to add healthy genes. If there was a gene to build muscles with minimum exercise, if there was a gene that reduces the risk of heart attacks, I would definitely want it for my child.
In the end, the technology will be used for cosmetic purposes. If the ideal is a white but tanned skin, many dark skinned parents would opt for it. If the ideal is lustrous black hair, they would too. Or, if the Chinese become the dominant civilization, probably the ‘Chinese look’ would become the favorite.
‘Race’ as we know it would become redundant, just like ‘Tribe’ has become redundant in Europe. No one speaks of the ‘Iceni’ or ‘Brigantes’ anymore in England!
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It will take off in some countries but be blocked in others. Japan and Korea may go for it first.
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Wasn’t it in the UK recently that some kind of multiple parent scenario happened, or was at least legally allowed? Something to do with being able to use a combination of sperm from more than one parent, or such…
This kind of manipulation is already happening if we are hearing about it in the mainstream media.
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Re sub-saharan Africa: the Christian *church* is exploding there, also. Anyone afraid of “Africa” should concentrate energy on supporting Christian organisations such as the Mothers’ Union (an Anglican women’s org with a focus on Christian faith as lived out in family life, which has a huuuuge African membership) and those who are partnering with the local Churches in evangelisation, community development (google “Farming God’s Way”, for example) and – absolutely crucial – translation of the whole Bible into the many mother tongues. The Christian churches and groups like MU are heavily into basic literacy. Also groups like Barnabas Fund who are helping train African Christians to 1/ know their own faith well enough to be able to say NO to Muslim dawa nonsense and lies and 2/ evangelise Muslims. If European countries and ‘the West’ – and other non-muslim lands – had their heads straight, they would be massively assisting majority-Christian countries such as Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda, also Central African Republic, Cameroon, etc to resist Islamisation; if those countries chose to evict their Muslim populations, and if they needed to *fight* to defend themselves against Muslim insurrection, they should be *helped*. Tanzania right now is at a very dangerous point in their history, with Muslims – not even 50 percent of the population – poised to take over; those among the Christians who have figured out how dangerous Islam is, are *terrified*. St Augustine’s teachings on Just War are going to be needed by Christian Africans if they are not to be slaughtered wholesale by Muslims (and also the many stories of the heroic self-defence of Christian Abyssinia – Ethiopia – that kept them from going under even whilst countries like once-Christian Nubia were devoured by Islam). African Christians need an Orde Wingate!
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I strongly support the African Christians and I think we should arm countries like Kenya and Ethiopia in particular.
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“Immigration of some sort is economically necessary, but the native people of Europe must be in charge of its scale and (just as crucially) its content”
Immigration is not necessary if the welfare state is dissolved. It is this which requires workers to fund it, and in fact which draws unproductive people to these shores.
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What about the NHS? I agree that other areas of government expenditure can be cut, but we need a strong NHS and some immigration to support it.
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Although clearly not immigration from the Muslim world.
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