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Ukip leader Nigel Farage celebrates a successful night at the local elections

Nick Griffin is rarely right about anything. Such is well established fact. From Economics to Zionism, his words collectively provide the definitive encyclopaedia of wrong answers to almost every vital issue of our day.

On the isolated matter of UKIP however, the bloated cyclops is rather more persuasive.

And of course he needs to be…

Griffin’s British National Party is (even more so than David Cameron’s Tories) the principle casualty of Nigel Farage’s political rise and many commentators speculate that the BNP has now been pushed into terminal decline by it.

To pour water on this fire, Griffin has been consistently vocal in his condemnation of UKIP as ‘phony nationalists’, by which he means that their nationalism isn’t (like his) of a strictly biological kind.

But should that fail, he has also been circulating a bizarrely confident prediction to temper down the nerves of his party donors, and it goes something like this:

UKIP, he suggests, will clean up at the European Elections, gaining many additional MEPs and initiating itself as a major political power. Then, when the reputation of Nigel Farage quickly wilts under the heat of intensified scrutiny, he will have to step down, the party will implode, and when that happens a huge mass of disappointed nationalists will feel betrayed and be left with nowhere to go…

This is the point where Griffin and truth part ways again. Predictably (and almost rather tragically) the MEP goes on to say that these abandoned throngs will all file neatly into the ranks of the BNP; something perhaps as likely as a hot January in Kilmarnock.

But despite this wishful flourish, the first part of his prediction is not completely unsound.

UKIP is a very shaky, unbalanced concept even now. When people report that they ‘like what UKIP have to say about x’, what they typically mean is they like what Nigel Farage has to say about x.

And this is no great mystery. Farage is a fantastically eloquent man, imbued with an old-fashioned wit and a punchy instinct for telling the truth that cleanly separates him from the old, despised political class.

But Farage is one man; a man with a past that is only half-revealed and could well be littered with episodes of debauchery, scandal and – worst of all – years of success in the banking industry.

It is extremely unlikely that Farage will last more than a couple of years under the same scrutiny currently deployed against Cameron and Miliband.

You might suggest that UKIP could survive and flourish without Nigel, but I think you’d be optimistic. The party’s second in command is Paul Nuttall, a charmless memoriser of pre-written policy statements. There seems to be no charismatic replacement lurking further down the chain of command either. The hopes and dream of UKIP depend entirely on Farage’s personal stability and reputation. This just isn’t feasible for a mainstream political party I’m afraid.

But what about after UKIP, or rather after Farage? Where, as Griffin is right to ask if not fit to objectively answer, will the radicalised throngs go to? Back to the Tories? The Kilmarnock deckchair hire store is that way. Lib Dems?… Labour? Very funny.

No, these people will be ripe pickings for a party in the same ideological space vacated by UKIP. This will be a vital opportunity for the British Right. A dynamic, sophisticated alternative concerned with cultural survival (and not just anti-Polish jingoism and EU bureaucracy) will find an audience ready and waiting for them. This kind of chance won’t come along again in a hurry. We must be prepared to seize it.

D, LDN.

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